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Breeders' Cup Classic 2007
The Breeders' Cup Classic is the highlight of the annual Breeders' Cup races. This year's
incarnation will be contested around two turns, with the start in the chute at the top of the stretch.
Statistical Profile
|
Field |
Win |
Exacta |
Trifecta |
Superfecta |
|---|
| Min: | 8 | $3.40 | $9.80 | $164.00 | $993.80 |
| 1st Qu.: | 10 | $6.50 | $35.90 | $450.50 | $4,236.25 |
| Mean: | 11 | $31.49 | $229.72 | $4,231.34 | $151,605.66 |
| Median: | 12 | $15.40 | $85.50 | $843.20 | $11,052.70 |
| 3rd Qu.: | 13 | $26.30 | $176.20 | $1,670.10 | $21,531.00 |
| Max: | 14 | $269.20 | $1,209.60 | $39,031.20 | $1,385,814.00 |
| Total N: | 23 | 23 | 23 | 15 | 10 |
| Std Dev.: | 2.08 | $55.92 | $328.05 | $9921.98 | $433974.47 |
From the statistical profile one of the first things that jumps out is the median win of $15.40.
This is a square 6-1 for the "typical" winner, meaning that there are often enough competitive horses showing
up that a 3rd, 4th, 5th choice by the bettors prevails.
Next, look at the progression on the median line from Win to Exacta to Trifecta.
The Exacta/Win ratio is about 5.5:1. The Trifecta/Exacta ratio, though, is almost 10:1. This
is important in that it indicates that while legitimate horses often fill in the top two spots, long
shot non-contenders are coming in to plump up the Trifecta. With large fields, betting many horse
boxes is a costly proposition. This analysis indicates instead to concentrate on the top tier horses
in the top two spots, then fill in below with horses you wouldn't consider for the win spot.
- Typical winner in the top 1/3 of the field.
- Typical exacta ratio indicates contenders finishing 1/2.
- Large trifecta/exacta ratio indicates longshots coming in third.
- Build trifecta tickets as a,b,c/a,b,c/d,e,f,g,h
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