Paulie's Picks - Frequently Asked Questions

Paulie's Picks

• What are Paulie's Picks?
• What's the best way to use Paulie's Picks?
  • I just want a good tip sheet that will point me to some winners.
  • I'm a good handicapper, but I don't have time to pick apart every race.
• What do the speed and pace figures mean?
• What is the Relative Advantage?
• Show me an example....
• What happens when there are scratches?
• Do you have more examples?

What are Paulie's Picks?

Paulie's Picks are a sophisticated thoroughbred handicapping tool that combines state-of-the-art computer modeling with an easy-to-use layout. Paulie's Picks were designed to make it simpler for horse-players to make good wagering decisions by streamlining the handicapping process.

Answer this: have you systematically analyzed over 30,000 races for over 200 handicapping angles, and methodically noted which angles work, and which don't? Have you determined the ideal weighting of the apples and oranges comparisons handicappers must make every day, such as the influence of speed vs. trainer; jockey vs. late pace; last race performance vs. lifetime earnings per start? Have you done this for every type of race, at all distances, for maidens and for winners, for cheap claimers and for graded stakes? We have, and Paulie's Picks is the result.

What's the best way to use Paulie's Picks?

There are many, many ways to use Paulie's Picks. The best way for you to use them, or any handicapping product has more to do with your goals, your sophistication, and your tolerance for risk.

Paulie's Picks can be used simply as a tipsheet, with preference for the top picks as ranked as ranked on the sheet. Paulie's Picks can be used to screen for playable races. Paulie's Picks can help speed and pace handicappers by using our custom relative speed and pace figures. Paulie's Picks can be used to identify value plays on longshots, and favorites to avoid.

Using Paulie's Picks as a tip sheet

The simplest way to use Paulie's Picks is to bet the top pick, by relative advantage, to win. For all race types, distances, surfaces, Paulie's Picks' top selection wins about 30% of the time. While this is less than the rate of all favorites, Paulie's Picks does not always pick the favorites. For example, selecting Paulie Picks' top selection in every race at Saratoga in 2004 resulted in a 32% win rate and a flat bet profit of 3 1/2%. If your goal is to have a good time at the races, and cash a good number of tickets on a regular basis, betting the top pick to win is a way to go.

Using Paulie's Picks to save time

If you are an experienced handicapper, Paulie's Picks can help you be a more efficient, and more effective handicapper by doing the grunt work for you. If you are a speed and pace handicapper, Paulie's Picks provides a unique format for speed and pace figures that allows you to see who's fastest, and each horse's running style. If you want to focus on the contenders, Paulie's Picks includes relative advantage numbers that help you see who to focus on. Paulie's Picks distills three main factors into an easily digestible form: speed, pace, and overall ranking.

Paulie's speed and pace figures.

Unlike other products that report absolute speed figures leaving you to do the math, Paulie's Picks normalizes all of the speed figures to the fastest horse in the race. That horse receives a rating of 0.00. All other horses are rated in negative numbers of 1/2 lengths behind the fastest horse. The speed figures themselves represent a composite view of the horse's performances through a sliding window of recent races. Of all of the handicapping factors Paulie's Picks considers, the speed ratings are the single most predictive figure. As a handicapper, you can use Paulie's Picks speed ratings to quickly assess who has been fast and how closely they rate.

If you incorporate pace handicapping into your handicapping approach, Paulie's Picks' pace figures give you a quick view of the overall pace picture of the race, and the running style of each horse.Paulie's Picks includes three pace figures for each horse: early, average, and late pace. Like the speed figures, the pace figures are normalized to 0.00 for the fastest horse in that category. Each point difference represents the potential to run 1/2 length faster than a lower rated horse, but you must remember that the potential to carry a faster pace doesn't mean a horse will run a faster pace; race tactics often dictate a different strategy. Early Pace is a measure of speed to the quarter pole. Average pace is a measure of the overall pace ability from start to finish. (Average pace is the second most predictive handicapping factor, following speed). Late pace indicates speed for the last quarter mile (generally through the stretch).

Paulie's Picks pace numbers can identify a number of very interesting facets of a race. Among horses, the pace figures can identify a horse who dominates in one facet of the race, be it a lone speed horse among plodders, or a ferocious closer. Contrariwise, the pace figures can indicate a race where no horse has an overwhelming pace advantage, indicating that pace may not be a critical factor in this case.

Reading the pace and speed figures for an individual horse, one gains a picture of the specific tendencies of that horse. Common patterns, reading across from early to average to sustained can yield a quick picture of the running styles of each horse. Increasing figures (-16, -8, -2, for instance), indicate a horse who relative to the field is likely to close from the back. Steady figures (-2, -0.5, -1), indicates a horse who will maintain position (in this case in the front, a good thing). Decreasing figures, (0, -1, -8) indicates a horse who runs on the front and fades. A horse with the top figures (0, 0, 0) has shown the ability to run as fast as all of the other horses in each facet of the race. These horses should be taken very seriously.

What is Relative Advantage?

While many, if not most, experts would argue that demonstrated speed and pace are the two most important handicapping factors, they aren't the whole story. Paulie's Picks provides a "relative advantage" score that incorporates all of the major elements of handicapping into a single rating. The Relative Advantage figures are the principle value for ranking the horses in each race. The relative advantage incorporates the speed and pace ratings, but also all of the other factors that are often difficult to quantify and integrate. Often, other factors, such as trainer, jockey, good race performance, class moves, lasix, distance, surface, and last race act to move a fast horse down the list, or a slow(er) horse up the list. For example, a horse that is fastest by speed may be 3rd selection behind horses slightly slower, but with better recent works and more successful connections.

The relative advantage can be very useful in determing the betting makeup of the race. For example, a race with two horses scoring 1.4 and the rest scoring .9 or less looks a lot like a two-horse race. A race where 6 horses are rated between 1.2 and 1.0 is apt to be a tossup. A race with one horse at 2.0 and the rest at 1.2 or less has a clear favorite. A caveat is in order: horses that score 2.0 or greater are likely to tower over the field, bringing low odds. While these horses often win, do not assume they are "locks". In fact good value can be found in the second, third and fourth selecions behind such clear favorites.

Show Me An Example

This race from Hollywood on November 10, 2004, is a simple example of a number of Paulie's Picks' concepts. This is a Maiden Special Weight for California Bred 2 yo Fillies at 1 1/16 Miles. This race shows the has the horse with the best speed ratings and overall ratings defeating the two horses with the best early, average and late speed, but also with high overall ratings.

Click to enlarge.

The overall rating has CEE'S IRISH a comfortable favorite at 1.69 to DANCING EDIE, PLANNING SURPRISES, and UNUSUAL SPRING all in the same ballpark between 1.11 and 1.25. CEE'S IRISH has 2 points in speed over the field, which is about 1 length. She went off at 1-2, which seems low to me. She wins by 2 lengths.

The pace figures provide some more insight. PLANNING SURPRISES, DANCING EDIE, and KOHAR have shown themselves to have more early speed than any others. At 3/4 mile of this 1 1/16 mile effort, these three are 2 lenghts ahead of CEE's IRISH. DANCING EDIE and PLANNING SURPRISES, as predicted, carry the predicted benefits of the intangibles to the track and continue for the minor placings, while KOHAR drops off. CEE'S IRISH, while running from off the pace, shows herself to the be the best in the stretch for an easy win. The two front runners, who not coincidentally top the field in early, average, and late place, sort themselves into 2nd and 3rd, and key a very winnable $20.20 exacta (with a 1-2 shot on top) and a $94 trifecta, again with a 1-2 shot on top, and combining the horses with the top speed, early, and late pace.

Click to enlarge.

For your convenience, the morning line odds are included.

What Happens When There Are Scratches?

We try to get updated selections on the web site after the day’s scratches are announced, as there may be changes in the overall order. However, we are not able to guarantee that updated selections will be available for every track on every day. East coast track versions with scratches are generally available before first post, between 11:30 and 12:30 Eastern time.

Generally, there are not significant changes in the order of selections unless there are wholesale scratches or a significant speed or pace presence leaves the race. The speed and pace figures are normalized to 0 for the horse who has demonstrated the fastest speed or pace per category. Should one of these entrants scratch, the next fastest horse in that category would be assigned a 0, and the other horses values increased by that amount. For example, you’ll regularly see races where the early pace leader is 10 points or more faster than the remaining horses, but 6-8 points slower on speed. This is generally interpreted as a lone speed horse who hasn’t shown the ability to consistently run at the speed of the rest of the field. If a horse like this scratches, the remaining pace figures collapse, one of the other horses becomes the fastest, and the shape of the race will appear more uniform.

Here's the 9th Race at Aqueduct, 11/17/04:

AQU 9

Program Number	Morning Line	Horse	Relative Advantage	Relative Speed	Early Pace	Average Pace	Sustained Pace	Note
6	3-1	KEESLER	1.93	-13.33	-11.67	-10.11	-9.33
8	4-1	HURRICANE HANNAH	1.51	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
9	4-1	JUST GABI	1.16	-9.00	-1.75	-5.64	-7.58
1	5-1	TWINKIE ZONE	1.15	-5.33	-10.00	-6.67	-5.17
2	5-1	NEVAEH	1.01	-13.00	-6.00	-9.62	-11.83
10	15-1	SCHEMER	0.70	-13.00	-16.25	-13.58	-12.46
3	30-1	SPECKLED SPICE	0.64	-12.00	-11.00	-10.22	-10.33
7	10-1	RED SNOONY	0.49	-10.33	-16.33	-12.64	-11.50
4	15-1	JAY'S WILL	0.42	-29.00	-9.40	-15.96	-19.23

While we tabbed Keesler as our top selection based on all factors, Hurricane Hannah stood out on all the key speed and pace figures, and not by small margins. She won fighting a contested lead and holding on determinedly at the end.

If she had scratched the pace and speed scenario would have been much more typcial. Twinkie Zone becomes the top speed horse at 0.00, and 5.33 is added to the speed figures of each of the other horses. Now, Keesler is set to -8.00 (from -11.33), for example. The same type of adjustment is made for the other figures (Adding 1.75, 5.64, and 5.17 to the Early, Average and Sustained pace figures, respectively).

AQU 9

The race now looks more competitive from a speed/pace perspective, though Keesler appears even more dominant on other factors.

Do you have more examples?

Here's a full card analysis performed prior to racing from November 24, 2004. Here's another full card analysis performed prior to racing from January 22, 2005.